Ole Miss has a perfect storm brewing

Key Players: Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster, Greg Hardy

Schedule:
9/6 at Memphis
9/12 OPEN DATE
9/19 SE Louisiana
9/26 at South Carolina
10/3 at Vanderbilt
10/10 Alabama
10/17 UAB
10/24 Arkansas
10/31 at Auburn
11/7 Northern Arizona
11/14 Tennessee
11/21 LSU
11/28 at Miss State

The Ole Miss Rebels will likely be a top 10 preseason favorite among most media elites across the country. In my own preseason top 25, I have them ranked 7th. After winning 6 straight to close out the season, including an impressive Cotton Bowl win over Texas Tech, the Rebels have the momentum to carry over into 2009 which could spell success. In 2008, Houston Nutt debuted as the Ole Miss head coach, leading the Rebs to a 9-4 record and a strong 2nd place finish in the SEC west. Most notably, they were the only team to beat Florida last year. But despite strong wins against LSU and Texas Tech, this Ole Miss team still dropped games to Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and South Carolina.

Jevan Snead is poised to lead Ole Miss to the promised land

The Rebels will be returning starters in several key positions this year. Jevan Snead is being billed as the second best quarterback in the SEC behind Tebow. They return great talents on offense in Dexter McCluster and Shay Hodge. Defensively they return Greg Hardy and Jerrell Powe. These returning starters are key especially considering the other 2 front-runners to compete for the SEC West will be starting relatively inexperienced quarterbacks in Alabama and LSU. If there are any questions at all, they are on the offensive line and how they will handle replacing Michael Oher.

The schedule is incredibly favorable for the Rebels. They don’t have to play any of the SEC East powers this year in Georgia or Florida and their toughest SEC West games, Bama and LSU, will be played in Oxford. Their non-conference schedule is also extremely easy with games against SE Louisiana, UAB, and Northern Arizona (do those schools even have football teams?) There is no single, tough road game you can point to on their schedule.

It almost seems like a perfect storm is brewing in Oxford. The rest of the SEC West will be starting relatively new quarterbacks (Bama, LSU, Arkansas) or those with less than stellar stats from the previous year (Auburn, MSU). They have one of the easiest schedules in the nation, let alone the SEC. On top of all this, they’ll be returning a plethora of starters on offense. Top that off with a great coaching staff and it makes a recipe for success.

For a team that hasn’t won an SEC title since 1963, the Ole Miss Rebels are hungry. All the pieces are in place for them to win the SEC West. Their biggest problem will be trying to NOT be the Ole Miss team of the past. They can’t afford to lose a game they’re supposed to win this year, especially in the conference. If they can manage to win one of the two, either Bama or LSU, they could be playing in Atlanta in December.
Fearless prediction: 10-2, 2nd in the west with a loss to either Bama/LSU and another team they’re favored to beat (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, or Tennessee are the most likely suspects.)

SEC Media Days are here!

Beginning on the 22nd of July and going through the 24th, the 12 head coaches and select players from every SEC school (yes even Vandy) will all meet up at the Wynfrey Hotel in Hoover, AL for the biggest off-season event in the conference; SEC Media Days is here.  I’ll be keeping track of this year’s SEC Media Days as best I can and posting interesting clips and interviews.

The schedule is as follows:

Wednesday, July 22nd:

Arkansas – HC Bobby Petrino, DT Malcom Sheppard, TE D.J. Williams

Vanderbilt – HC Bobby Johnson, CB Myron Lewis, C Bradley Vierling

Mississippi State – HC Dan Mullen, OT Derek Sherrod, LB K.J. Wright

Kentucky – HC Rich Brooks, OT Zipp Duncan, CB Trevard Lindley

Thursday, July 23rd:

Alabama – HC Nick Saban, OL Mike Johnson, LB Rolando McClain

Georgia – HC Mark Richt, QB Joe Cox, DT Jeff Owens

Ole Miss – HC Houston Nutt, DE Greg Hardy, QB Jevan Snead

Florida – HC Urban Meyer, LB Brandon Spikes, QB Tim Tebow

Friday, July 24th:

Auburn – HC Gene Chizik, DE Antonio Coleman, TE Tommy Trott

South Carolina – HC Steve Spurrier, WR Moe Brown, LB Eric Norwood

LSU – HC Leslie Miles, OT Ciron Black, LB Jacob Cutrera

Tennessee – HC Lane Kiffin, SAF Eric Berry, TB Montario Hardesty

This should be one of the best SEC Media Days in history (although Fulmer’s subpoena serving should be hard to top).  SEC Media Days marks an important milestone for the year because it means that the most holy of seasons is closing in on us.

Who is the better receiver? The jury is still out.

Much has been made over the past year on which is the better receiver in the SEC.  Many believe Julio Jones to be the best receiver in the SEC coming into 2009 while some argue that A.J. Green (Georgia)  is being overlooked and may even be better than Julio.

Looking at the numbers alone between the two seems to put the argument at rest.

A.J. Green 56 REC 963 REC/YDS 17.2 YPR 8 TD

Julio Jones 58 REC 924 REC/YDS 15.9 YPR 4 TD

Wow.  When you put it that way, Green is the better receiver.  Case closed.  But as the indelible Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends.  There’s other factors involved.  Variables that make the difference between the two more startling and prove just why Jones may be not just better than Green, but much better.

First of all is the fact that A.J. Green was on the receiving end of 56 catches from Georgia’s quarterback, Matthew Stafford.  You guys recall him right?  He was the guy that was drafted #1 overall in the NFL draft.  Stafford was one of the best passers in the league last year with 3459 passing yards, 25 TD’s and 10 INTs.  In addition to the 56 receptions he dropped to Green, he also unloaded 58 to Mohamed Massaquoi.  Massaquoi, like Green, had over 900 yards receiving and also 8 TD’s.

Next, let’s look at Jones’ numbers.  Unlike Green, Jones led his team in receptions and it wasn’t even close.  The next highest total was 32 from a tight end, Nick Walker.  There wasn’t even a clear enough #2 receiving threat which meant that Jones was double covered on nearly every possession.  Jones also didn’t have the benefit of having the top NFL drafted quarterback throwing him the ball either.  John Parker Wilson, while a very able quarterback in Alabama’s scheme, didn’t come close to Staffords numbers recording only 2243 passing yards, 9 TD’s and 7 INT’s.  Wilson may have been the polar opposite of Stafford, going undrafted in the NFL.  Of Wilson’s 9 TD’s, Jones accounted for 4 of them, despite the double coverages.  Nick Walker was second on the team in REC TD’s with 2.

It’s much easier for Georgia fans and critics alike to point to Green’s numbers as the definitive answer to who the better receiver is.  Without looking at the variables and factoring in the little things, it’s an easy assumption to make.  Alabama has a run-first/smashmouth defense gameplan.  Georgia relied heavily on it’s offensive production.  Naysayers will point out that Alabama’s offensive line was much better than Georgia’s, and this is true, but despite this fact, Stafford was the more able quarterback and thus able to deliver passes to his receivers despite the lack of protection.  Wilson was at best asked not to lose games for Alabama.  It was a job he handled increasingly well throughout the season.

The jury is still out on who is the better receiver.  This year, they will both be entering 2009 with similar circumstances.  Both will have new quarterbacks throwing them the ball and both will be their teams’ number 1 receiving threats.    Both quarterbacks, by all accounts, are more than capable in the passing game.  It will be interesting to see how both Green and Jones handle the pressure of being the best wide receivers in the conference.  As far as who will be the better receiver, only time will tell.  For me, the debate is not closed.

The Hogs may surprise many in 2009

Key Players: Ryan Mallet QB, Michael Smith RB, D.J. Williams TE

Schedule:
9/5 Missouri State
9/12 OPEN DATE
9/19 Georgia
9/26 at Alabama
10/3 Texas A&M (Arlington)
10/10 Auburn
10/17 at Florida
10/24 at Ole Miss
10/31 Eastern Michigan
11/7 South Carolina
11/14 Troy
11/21 Miss State
11/28 at LSU

You may not know his name now, but you will very soon.

With all the pre-season buzz about Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU, it seems the world has forgotten about the Razorbacks. The SEC is about to get a very rude awakening. Bobby Petrino is entering his second year at Arkansas and after a 5-7 season, he’s prepared to show the SEC that he’s ready and more than capable of coaching in this league. Petrino is an offensive genius. He managed to take an otherwise unknown Louisville Cardinal squad and turn them into a contender in the early 2000’s posting an amazing 41-9 record in his tenure there. After a short stint with the Falcons in the NFL, which ended rather ugly, Petrino returned to the college game.

Although the Hogs had talent last year, they failed to get anything going with close wins against Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe, they managed to win only 2 games in the SEC in 2008 (Auburn, LSU). Every win they managed to pull out leading to their 5-7 season was by a touchdown or less. It sounds worse than it actually is, however, as they lost several close games including a two point loss to Ole Miss and a one point loss to Kentucky. Losing close games can be detrimental to a team’s psyche. The fact that they were able to beat LSU in their final game, gives them a boost heading into 2009.

Key to the success of the Razorbacks is new quarterback Ryan Mallet, a transfer from Michigan. He was a 5-star quarterback coming out of high school and the number 1 recruit from the state of Texas in 2007. He’s a pro-style quarterback with great size and an ability to get the ball downfield. Petrino is known for his ability to move the ball on offense in the passing game so everything points to Mallett being a perfect fit. In his career at Michigan, Mallet was 61/141 with 892 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. While those numbers don’t stand out, keep in mind Mallett was merely a freshman. With all the buzz being about Tim Tebow and Jevan Snead, Mallett may be prepared to fly under the radar and have a breakout 2009 campaign.
Another key player for the Hogs will be running back Michael Smith. Despite missing three games last year, Smith still managed to rack up over 1,000 rushing yards and ten total touchdowns. He’s a senior running back with good experience under his belt. He can catch out of the backfield as well. He will need to be on top of his game for the Hogs to be a threat in 2009.

The receiving corps could be solid as well with the x-factor being D.J. Williams who caught 58 passes last year for 699 yards. He’s a junior this year and will look to factor in largely with this offense.
The offensive line is an experienced one including three juniors, a senior, and one sophomore expected to start. Their experience will be critical in opening up lanes for Smith, but the biggest concern will be their ability to protect Mallett in the pocket. Last year this offensive line gave up 38 sacks to Casey Dick. They will need to improve if Petrino’s offense is to have any success this year.

Defensively, the Hogs may be in better shape. Last year, they gave up a lot of points including 52 to Texas and 49 to Alabama. They will need to improve on this to give Petrino’s offense any chance of winning football games. Fortunately, they return an experienced secondary and their front seven should be alright as well. While they won’t be a top defense in the SEC, they are talented enough to keep the Hogs in some close games this season.

Their schedule is among the most brutal in the SEC. Not only will they play Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU, all on the road, they’ll also face powerhouses Georgia and Florida. Even their out-of-conference scheduling of Troy could be tough for them.

Arkansas is still a couple of years away from challenging for the SEC west title, but they are making major progress. While this season won’t be as bad as 2008, don’t expect for them to challenge for the SEC west this year. In 2010, however, after Mallett has a year down in this offense, the Hogs could be scary. Look for them to be this year’s Ole Miss in terms of coming out of nowhere to win some big games.
Fearless prediction: 8-4. They win all the games they are supposed to plus sneak one away from a team they weren’t supposed to beat (Georgia, Ole Miss, or LSU most likely).

Much of Alabama's fate rests in the hands of this young man

Going into the 2009 season, prognosticators and pundits have been unable to come to any clear consensus on Alabama’s QB situation.  With the reigns being passed over to Greg McElroy many are wondering how he’s going to handle being “the man.”  Love him or hate him, John-Parker Wilson was a decent steward of the Tide especially in his senior season leading the Tide to a 12-0 regular season record, a shutout against his rivals, and coming within one game of a national championship.  Many in the state are wondering just what’s in store for them with McElroy.  Can he be the QB Bama needs him to be?  Can he lead this team?  In short, the answer is absolutely he can.

McElroy attended Carroll Senior High School in Southlake, Texas.  During his sophomore and junior seasons he played behind Chase Daniels.  In his senior season in 2005, he led Carroll to a Texas 5A State Championship going 16-0.  During that season he set the single season 5A state record for TD’s with 56 while only throwing 9 INT’s.  His 56 TD’s rank second all-time in the entire state behind Graham Harrell.  His 4,646 passing yards ranks 5th all time in the state as well.

Chase Daniels and Graham Harrell are pretty good company.  What’s most impressive about McElroy is his mobility.  He’s a dual threat QB** that can run and throw the long ball with pin-point accuracy.  Although the video quality is shoddy, you can get an idea of what he’s capable of in he highlight film below:

McElroy’s biggest weakness is, of course, his inexperience in the SEC.  But he looked fantastic in the A-Day game as evidenced below:

Frankly, the Crimson Tide faithful should be able to breathe a sigh of relief.  I think McElroy may be the best QB the Tide have had behind center since Jay Barker.  With the recent add of Michael Bowman and the fact Bama has one of the nation’s top receivers in Julio Jones, McElroy could end up being the second or third best QB in the conference this year.

** Officially, McElroy is considered a pro-style QB, but it’s obvious after watching his high school tape above that he has excellent mobility and speed and can run with the ball when needed.

Michael Bowman will need to step up big

This week Michael Bowman was cleared to enroll at Alabama by the NCAA Clearinghouse and should be ready to join the Tide.  This is extremely important for a number of reasons not the least of which is how his play will effect Julio Jones.  Jones is one of the best receivers in the nation, hands down.  Certainly one of the top 3 in the SEC if not the best.  Last year he faced double teams much of the time because there was no other real receiving threat.  Sure Nick Walker factored in but he played tight end.  The Tide needed a legitimate and solid down the field threat at receiver.  In the A Day game Marquis Maze looked brilliant.  Last season he played remarkably well as a freshman.  But at only 5’9″ he’s slightly undersized compared to Julio and Bowman.

Bowman, being a big receiver like Julio at 6’4″ is going to require the attention of defenses which will open Julio up to catch balls out of the flats and downfield.  Bowman is considered not as developed as Julio so it may take some time to get him up to Jones’ level on the field, but he certainly has the talent to make a difference.  Aside from Richardson, Fluker, and Carpenter, Bowman may be the key piece to making sure the Tide can get downfield with the football.  Obviously the running game is solid and will be for a while, but with Bowman lining up, it can only make Julio and the rest of the team better.  If, that is, he plays up to his potential.

MSU enters a rebuilding year

Head Coach: Dan Mullen (0-0)

Key Players: Anthony Dixon RB, Tyson Lee/Tyler Russell, the entire OL

Schedule:
9/5 Jackson State
9/12 at Auburn
9/19 at Vanderbilt
9/26 LSU
10/3 Georgia Tech
10/10 Houston
10/17 at Middle Tennessee
10/24 Florida
10/31 at Kentucky
11/7 OPEN DATE
11/14 Alabama
11/21 at Arkansas
11/28 Ole Miss

Coming off a disappointing 4-8 season and a loss to rival Ole Miss 45-0 at season’s end last year, it was apparent that the Mississippi State/Sylvester Croom experiment was finally over.  With only one winning season in five years, it was time to go in a new direction.  The Bulldogs landed a homerun hire with former Florida Offensive Coordinator, Dan Mullen.  In the Croom era, specifically 2008, MSU had one of the worst offenses in the country.  An offense so bad, they couldn’t muster enough for even a field goal in an Auburn game they lost 3-2 despite a ton of Auburn turnovers near the end of the game.  MSU fans are hoping Dan Mullen can turn that around and with good reason.  Mullen has helped mold such QB’s as Alex Smith in Utah (who became a #1 NFL draft pick) and Tim Tebow in Florida.  While having never served as a head coach, he has been an assistant under Meyer at both Florida and Utah and is regarded as an offensive guru.  The fit seems perfect, but will it translate into victories?

MSU had a fairly decent recruiting class which featured 4 star QB prospect Tyler Russell, a pro-style QB.  In addition they brought in some good defensive talent including DE Pernell McPhee, a JUCO transfer.  McPhee should see action right away while Russell’s future as of now, is more uncertain.  Tyson Lee is a senior and despite his struggles, may get the starting nod at QB.  This would probably be a good idea anyway allowing Russell to redshirt and come in to kick of Mullen’s second season.

Anthony Dixon will be key for success in Starkville

Anthony Dixon returns for his senior season at RB for the Bulldogs.  In 2007 he was able to eclipse the 1,000 yard rushing mark as well as accumulate 14 TD’s on the ground and 2 TD’s in the air.  In 2008, however, his numbers came down a bit as he only reached just over 800 yards and 7 rushing TD’s.  Despite the reduction in total yards he did see the most YPC in 2008 at 4.4.  Having played his entire college carreer, Dixon is a well-tested SEC back capable of breaking 1,000-1,500 yards this year, if the offensive line can hold up.   As the likely focal point of Mullen’s offense, expect him to have a big year in the backfield.

The offensive line is where the key to the team’s success lies.  They’re a young group not having one senior starting.  J.C. Brignone is the junior Center and should be the anchor on the line.  If they can come together and offer Lee/Russell the protection and open up holes for Dixon, the offense should be substantially improved.  Considering they gave up 25 sacks last year, it’s going to be a top priority for this offense.

Where they’re weakest is in the receiving corps.  Brandon McCrae is the senior leader while most of the other receivers will all be freshmen and sophomores.  It will be interesting to see how this young group of receivers handles the speed of the SEC defenses they’ll face.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are strong.  They have a solid defensive line and an experienced MLB in Jamar Chaney.  The secondary will be led by senior Marcus Washington.  Expect the defense to keep MSU close in games this year.

The schedule, while tough, still is a favorable one with their toughest games LSU, GA Tech, Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss all being played at home.  Their toughest road game will come against Arkansas.

Overall this will be a rebuilding year for MSU.  While they’re certainly not loaded with talent or depth, they have some big players to look out for.  Defenses will especially be focusing on stopping Dixon as he really should be the key to that offense.  Of the tough games I can see them sneaking away with maybe one against GA Tech.  Mullen has his work cut out for him, but if I’m a Bulldog fan, I’m liking what the future holds.

Fearless prediction: 6-6 overall, 5th place in the West.  Conference wins over Auburn, Vandy, and UK

Can Auburn overcome last season's woes?

The 2009 SEC football season is only a little over 2 months away and with that, it’s time to preview the teams heading into the 2009 season.  I will try, as best I can, to give an objective analysis on each team in the SEC over the next two months.   We begin with the Auburn Tigers.

Head Coach: Gene Chizik (0-0, 5-19)

Key Players: Mario Fannin, Whoever wins the QB battle

Schedule:

9/5 Louisiana Tech
9/12 Miss State
9/19 West Virginia
9/26 Ball State
10/3 at Tennessee
10/10 at Arkansas
10/17 Kentucky
10/24 at LSU
10/31 Ole Miss
11/7 Furman
11/14 at Georgia
11/21 OPEN DATE
11/28 Alabama

Mario Fannin will have to carry the load for the Tigers

The Auburn Tigers are coming off one of the worst seasons in recent years.  After dropping 6 of their last 7 games in 2008 and losing 36-0 in the Iron Bowl, the powers at Auburn pushed out Coach Tommy Tuberville.  After a seemingly exhaustive coaching search, the Tigers turned to former assistant and then Iowa State head coach, Gene Chizik.  In his tenure as a head coach at Iowa State, Chizik went 5-19 including a 2008 result of 2-10.  What’s worse is the fact that Coach Chizik’s Cyclones, playing in the Big 12 North, didn’t even face Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, arguably the three best schools in the Big 12 last year.  The hiring of Chizik left many in the state of Alabama scratching their heads wondering how this was an improvement over Tommy Tuberville, who was only 4 years removed from taking the Tigers to an undefeated 2004 campaign and an SEC title.  That is only one of the many question marks heading into the 2009 season for the Auburn tigers.

Another issue is the quarterback battle which is currently, as of this writing, still ongoing.  While Kodi Burns and Neil Caudle seem to be the frontrunners for the starting job, there are as many as 7 QB’s competing including true freshmen Tyrik Rollison, whom many in Auburn feel will be their team’s future.  Last season Auburn under Tuberville’s direction, switched to a spread format.  This resulted in the firing of new Offensive Coordinator Tony Franklin (an expert on the offensive scheme) because the format wasn’t working.  Things, of course, only got worse after that.  Many argued that Auburn lacked the talent at the skill positions to run the spread.  Kodi Burns did not adapt well to the system and neither did their other players.  Perhaps after a couple of years of recruiting speedsters at the skill positions and a QB who could work with the complex offensive system, they could have run a formidable spread system.  Instead, it was an experiment in disaster.  Now, with new coaches, the competing QB’s must learn a new system under a new coach.  Who will rise to the top?  My money is on Neil Caudle, but only time will tell.

Auburn faces one of the toughest SEC schedules of the season.  Many of their toughest games will be on the road including visits to Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia, and LSU.  On top of that they must contend with SEC west pre-season darling Ole Miss and, of course, their biggest rival, the Alabama Crimson Tide, coming off yet another top recruiting class.  When you also look at their non-conference schedule there’s even more reason to be concerned.  Louisiana Tech is coming off of an 8-5 season and a bowl win.  They’re a team that has proven they can beat a less-than average SEC opponent after stunning Mississippi State last season.  This is a very winnable matchup against an unproven Auburn coach with question marks at the QB position.  They also have to contend with West Virginia who, while no longer having the services of Pat White, should still be a formidable opponent for the Tigers.

For Auburn to have any success against this monster of a schedule, they’re going to need great play from their everyman Mario Fannin.  He should be lining up as a wide receiver, h-back, and kick/punt returner.  Fannin is entering his junior year and has displayed moments of brilliance on the field while still yet not having the breakout campaign everyone seems to think he’s capable of.  Fannin needs to have a great season for Auburn to have a chance at winning most of their games.

Defensively, Auburn should be fine.  This is a team that, like most SEC top-calbre schools, has a good defense.  They’ll need to rely heavily on the defense to keep them in most of their games until the offense can get in sync.

So, is this the year Auburn can turn things around?  Coach Chizik has a long way to go.  With Saban returning cross-state rival to the top of college football in the state, he’ll have his work cut out for him.  Look for this to be a rebuilding year with Auburn finishing at or near the bottom of the SEC West standings.

Fearless prediction:  Auburn finishes 3-9 with surprising losses to Louisiana Tech and MSU.